Weekly · week ahead

Week of 2 Nov 2026: October jobs report, ISM surveys, US midterms, and Apple, AMD and Palantir results

US stocks fell last week (S&P 500 −0.6%, Nasdaq −2.0%, Dow −0.9% against the Friday before), with Friday the worst day: the Nasdaq dropped 2.9% in a tech sell-off. The closed Friday at 19.42, almost unchanged from 19.45 a week earlier.

The 10-year Treasury ended the week at 4.94% (5.00% a week earlier). Brent oil settled at $117.63 on Friday, a six-month high, and December gold futures settled at $3,898.90, the lowest in a year.

Coming up: the October jobs report on Friday, the ISM manufacturing (Monday) and services (Wednesday) surveys, the US midterm elections on Tuesday, and results from Apple and Palantir (Monday), AMD (Tuesday) and Qualcomm and Arm (Wednesday). There is no Fed meeting; the Bank of England decides on Thursday.

Mood Shaken after Friday's tech rout: AI-spending worries, $117 oil and a likely December Fed hike meet the jobs report and the midterms.

Last week Tue 27 to the Fri 30 Oct close

From Monday's close to Friday's, the S&P 500 fell 1.3% to 7,580.07, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.8% to 25,437.00 and the Dow fell 1.1% to 51,770.31.
The Fed held its target range at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday by a 10–2 vote (Cook and Hammack wanted a 0.25-point rise). The Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.5%; the ECB (deposit rate 2.50%) and the Bank of Japan (about 1.25%) held.
US Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualised (forecast 3.0%); September PCE prices rose 3.6% on a year ago, core 3.1%. Conference Board consumer confidence rose to 91.7 in October (forecast 80.4).
Big Tech results: Microsoft revenue $92.3B (+19%, Azure +48%); Alphabet $127.6B (+25%, Cloud +103%); Amazon net sales $201.9B (+12%, AWS +39%).
Friday's close: S&P 500 7,580.07 (−1.8%), Nasdaq 25,437.00 (−2.9%), Dow 51,770.31 (−1.1%); 10-year Treasury yield 4.94% (4.98% on Thursday); December gold futures settled at $3,898.90 (−3.3%) and GLD closed at $355.78 (−3.5%). According to news reports (Reuters, CNBC), stocks fell on fears that heavy AI spending may not pay off, led by a 28.6% drop in Intel after its results, and gold hit a one-year low as higher oil prices and persistent inflation worries strengthened expectations that US interest rates will stay high.

Charts

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

755.72 -0.56% (-4.25)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Live chart: TradingViewPrice and weekly change: Friday closing prices, week to 30 Oct

GLD SPDR Gold Shares

355.78 -2.95% (-10.83)

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Live chart: TradingViewPrice and weekly change: Friday closing prices, week to 30 Oct

The calendar · ET

Add to calendar

Mon 2 Nov

10:00Data
ISM Manufacturing PMI (October) High impact
54.7 (prior 54.5)
Why it matters: First big read on October activity; a strong number with rising prices would back a December Fed hike.
10:00Data
US construction spending (September)
11:15Fed
Chicago Fed's Goolsbee moderates a keynote and Q&A with BIS deputy general manager Andréa Maechler (Chicago Fed Financial Markets Group conference)
14:00Fed
Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS)
After the closeEarnings
Palantir (PLTR, Nasdaq) Q3 results
22:30Global
Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decision (cash rate 4.60%)
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
Apple (AAPL, Nasdaq) fiscal Q4 results

Tue 3 Nov

All dayMarket
US midterm elections: control of Congress is decided; results come in overnight High impact
Why it matters: Reuters says oil traders are bracing for a possible escalation of the Iran war after the vote; the result can also shift fiscal and tariff expectations.
10:00Data
JOLTS job openings (September)
10:00Data
US factory orders (September)
1.2% m/m (prior 0.1%)
After the closeEarnings
AMD (AMD, Nasdaq) Q3 results

Wed 4 Nov

05:00Global
Euro area October inflation (flash HICP)
3.9% y/y (prior 3.8%)
08:15Data
ADP private payrolls (October)
75k (prior 90k)
08:30Data
US trade balance (September)
−$104.9bn (prior −$105.6bn)
10:00Data
ISM Services PMI (October) High impact
54.8 (prior 54.9)
Why it matters: Services are most of the economy; its prices index is watched for inflation ahead of the Fed's December meeting.
After the closeEarnings
Qualcomm (QCOM, Nasdaq) fiscal Q4 results
After the closeEarnings
Arm Holdings (ARM, Nasdaq) fiscal Q2 results
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
Uber (UBER) Q3 results

Thu 5 Nov

07:00Global
Bank of England rate decision, minutes and Monetary Policy Report High impact
Hike to 4.00% (54 of 63 economists in a , 12–14 Oct)
Why it matters: Would be its first hike in more than three years, another sign that central banks are turning to hikes as energy prices push inflation up.
08:30Data
US productivity and unit labour costs (Q3, preliminary)
Unit labour costs prior 1.2% q/q; no consensus published by our source.
08:30Data
US weekly jobless claims
Prior 194k; no consensus published by our source.

Fri 6 Nov

04:30Fed
New York Fed's Williams in a fireside chat with ECB's Philip Lane (ECB Conference on Money Markets, Frankfurt)
08:30Data
US October jobs report (Employment Situation) High impact
Payrolls 65k (prior 29k); unemployment rate 4.2% (prior 4.2%); average hourly earnings 0.3% m/m (prior 0.1%)
Why it matters: The biggest data point before the Fed's 8–9 Dec meeting, where markets see a hike as likely.
12:15Fed
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman takes part in a discussion (University of Mississippi banking symposium)
15:00Data
US consumer credit (September)

No Fed meeting this week; the next is 8–9 Dec. (10 Nov) and (13 Nov) come the week after. Apple and Uber announced only their call times, so their release timing is marked unconfirmed. Other Fed appearances listed by TD Economics (Hammack, Barkin and Logan on Thursday, Musalem on Friday) could not be confirmed on the Fed's own sites and are left out. OPEC+ meets on Sun 1 Nov, after this page is written. Forecasts are Bloomberg consensus via TD Economics; times are Paris time (US clocks change on 1 Nov, so Paris is 6 hours ahead of New York this week).

Global watch

Central banks

Thu 5 Nov, 07:00 ET
Bank of England: decision, minutes and new forecasts. 54 of 63 economists in a Reuters poll (12–14 Oct) expect a hike from 3.75% to 4.00%, its first in more than three years. High impact
Another major central bank turning to hikes as energy prices lift inflation; can move gilts and, with them, global bond yields.
Mon 2 Nov, 22:30 ET
Reserve Bank of Australia: cash rate decision; the rate has been 4.60% since 30 September.
A read on how far other central banks are going against energy-driven inflation.

Oil & energy

Ongoing
Iran war: Brent settled at $117.63 and US crude at $104.12 on Friday, six-month highs, after a tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters says traders are bracing for a possible escalation after Tuesday's US midterms. High impact
Higher oil feeds straight into US inflation and makes a December Fed hike more likely.
Sun 1 Nov
OPEC+: the seven countries that kept November output unchanged on 4 Oct meet again to set December levels.
Any extra supply would ease oil prices; none has been signalled.

Global events

Tue 3 Nov
US midterm elections decide control of Congress.
Can shift expectations for fiscal policy, tariffs and the Iran war.
Wed 4 Nov, 05:00 ET
Euro area flash inflation for October; forecast 3.9% y/y (prior 3.8%), Bloomberg consensus via TD Economics. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 Oct.
Hotter euro inflation would revive talk of ECB hikes and push European yields up.

Times in ET (New York). Geopolitics as of Sat 31 Oct.

Rate odds · FOMC

8–9 Dec

Hold25.1%

Hike 25bp74.9%

As of early Fri 30 Oct, before Friday's sell-off (CME FedWatch figures as reported by FXBus). CME FedWatch via reports

Implied by futures prices; not a Fed forecast. Reported as a 74.9% chance of a hike and 25.1% of a hold in December; by January, 82.9% for at least one hike. The CME FedWatch page itself could not be read directly, and the odds may have moved after Friday's drop in yields.

Sentiment

SPY 1.16 vs 1.16

Unchanged on the week at 1.16, but Friday's 1.38 was the highest daily reading since 16 Oct as tech sold off: cautious.

GLD put/call0.69 vs 0.78

Lower than the week before and still below 1, with little put buying even as gold fell to a one-year low on Friday; Wednesday's 0.20 was unusually low.

investors38% bull · 41% bear vs 37 · 46

Week to 28 Oct (21% neutral). still lead, 41.4% vs 37.8% for , but the gap narrowed (bull-bear spread -3.6, from -8.9 a week earlier); neutral, at 20.7%, is still far below its 31.0% long-run average, and bears are well above their 31.5% average.

28 Oct

38%

21%

41%

21 Oct

37%

17%

46%

14 Oct

39%

20%

42%

7 Oct

40%

21%

39%

Bullish Neutral Bearish

VIX19.42 -0.03 on week

Close Fri 30 Oct. Flat on the week, but only after a Friday jump from 17.20 to 19.42 (intraday high 23.93) as tech sold off; it had dipped to 16.91 on Wednesday.

Put/call volume ratio, average of daily values, week 26–30 Oct vs 19–23 Oct. OCC cleared volume, all exchanges. Above 1 = more puts (hedging) than calls.

Full sentiment →

Key risks

AI spending: Reuters says Friday's tech sell-off came on fears that cash-burning AI investments may not pay off; the chip index fell more than 7% and the Nasdaq 2.9%. AMD, Qualcomm, Arm and Palantir report this week.
Oil: Brent settled at $117.63 on Friday, a six-month high, after a tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz; Reuters says traders are bracing for a possible escalation of the Iran war after Tuesday's midterms.
Rates: CME FedWatch put a December Fed hike at about 75% early on Friday, as reported; a strong jobs report or ISM prices could firm that up even though the 10-year yield fell to 4.94% on Friday.
Gold: December futures fell 3.3% on Friday to $3,898.90, the lowest settlement in a year, as rate-hike expectations firmed.

Unverified · from X posts

Summaries of X posts, not checked against primary sources.

None this week.