Market Weekly Briefing

Weekly sentiment · week of 2 Nov 2026

Weekly snapshot for the week of 2 Nov 2026, kept as a record. Latest read →

A HawkishLeaning towards higher interest rates to fight inflation. Fed hold and an AI-spending rout in big tech set a BearishExpecting prices to fall. tone; hot-inflation talk stays one-sided, and gold's mood is bearish online while retail buyers keep buying the dip.

Weekly data

SPY Put/call ratioOptions that bet on a fall (puts) divided by options that bet on a rise (calls). A high ratio means traders are buying more protection, a sign of caution.1.16 vs 1.16
Weekly data, as of Fri 30 Oct

Unchanged on the week at 1.16, but Friday's 1.38 was the highest daily reading since 16 Oct as tech sold off: cautious.marketdata.theocc.comOpen source ↗

GLD put/call0.69 vs 0.78
Weekly data, as of Fri 30 Oct

Lower than the week before and still below 1, with little put buying even as gold fell to a one-year low on Friday; Wednesday's 0.20 was unusually low.marketdata.theocc.comOpen source ↗

AAII surveyA weekly poll by the American Association of Individual Investors asking members whether they expect stocks to rise, fall or stay flat over the next six months. investors38% bull · 41% bear vs 37 · 46
Weekly data, as of the week to 28 Oct

Week to 28 Oct (21% neutral). Bears still lead, 41.4% vs 37.8% for BullishExpecting prices to rise., but the gap narrowed (bull-bear spread -3.6, from -8.9 a week earlier); neutral, at 20.7%, is still far below its 31.0% long-run average, and bears are well above their 31.5% average.aaii.comOpen source ↗

Bullish Neutral Bearish
VIXAn index of how much movement options traders expect in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, often called the 'fear gauge'. Higher means more expected turbulence.19.42 -0.03 on week
Weekly data, as of Fri 30 Oct

Close Fri 30 Oct. Flat on the week, but only after a Friday jump from 17.20 to 19.42 (intraday high 23.93) as tech sold off; it had dipped to 16.91 on Wednesday.cboe.comOpen source ↗

Put/call volume ratio, average of daily values, week 26–30 Oct vs 19–23 Oct. OCC cleared volume, all exchanges. Above 1 = more puts (hedging) than calls.

WeeklyWeekly social read · Read of 30 Oct 2026 · X, Reddit, YouTube, Google Trends

Weekly data: refreshed only with each Weekly briefing (every Saturday). One read of the whole past week across four sources, not a daily series.

Net score: bullish % minus bearish % of posts, 24–30 Oct 2026, unweighted (each scored post counts once). A bar reaches the edge at ±100. Samples under 30 posts are drawn hatched: a hint, not a measure. Search is Google TrendsA free Google tool showing how often people search for a topic compared with usual. A spike shows rising public attention, not whether people are buying or selling., US, last 7 days vs the prior 4 weeks: public worry, not opinion.

SPY · US stocksAgree← BearishBullish →
X−6flatn 266
Reddit−32bearishn 87
YouTube−39bearishn 80
Search“stock market crash” +48% vs the prior 4 weeks, peak on 28 Oct

Bearish, but by very different amounts. Reddit and YouTube are clearly bearish after weak big-tech earnings and the Friday tech selloff; X is only slightly bearish, as many market accounts call it a correction rather than a crash. Searches for a stock market crash jumped by about half.

GoldSplit← BearishBullish →
X−29leans bearishn 164
Reddit+4flatn 45
YouTube−20leans bearishn 39
Search“buy gold” −8% vs the prior 4 weeks

X and YouTube lean bearish with gold below $3,900; on Reddit, dip-buyers and worried holders roughly cancel out. Searches for buying gold eased slightly.

FedAgree← HawkishDovish →
X−42hawkishn 174
Reddit−64strongly hawkishn 11 · small sample
YouTube−47hawkishn 70
Search“Fed rate hike” +3% vs the prior 4 weeks, tiny volume

Hawkish. After the Fed held with two officials voting to hike, talk is about a December hike; on Reddit the sample is small.

CPI · inflationAgree← HotterCooler →
X−56hottern 105
Reddit−100strongly hottern 3 · small sample
YouTube−94strongly hottern 17 · small sample
Search“inflation” −14% vs the prior 4 weeks

Hot: still the most one-sided topic on X and YouTube, tied to oil prices, while Reddit barely discussed it. Searches for inflation fell.

net score, bar length = sizefewer than 30 postsAlso on search: “recession” -11%. YouTube titles: 26% fear, 2% hype (63% vs 1% by views).

Weekly sentiment trend · last 12 weeks

One bar per week (week starting 10 Aug to week starting 26 Oct); the darkest bar is the latest. Put/call is OCC cleared volume averaged over the week’s trading days; VIX is the Friday close (Cboe, via FRED); AAII is the survey reported that week. Updated each week from the same sources. A record, not a forecast.

SPY put/call, weekly average

10 Aug: 1.081.0817 Aug: 1.2924 Aug: 1.1031 Aug: 1.187 Sep: 1.3214 Sep: 1.1321 Sep: 1.0128 Sep: 1.095 Oct: 1.0512 Oct: 1.2019 Oct: 1.1626 Oct: 1.161.161
10 Aug26 Oct

Above the dashed 1 line = more puts (hedging) than calls. 12 of 12 weeks were above 1.marketdata.theocc.comOpen source ↗

GLD put/call, weekly average

10 Aug: 0.460.4617 Aug: 0.3324 Aug: 0.5531 Aug: 0.747 Sep: 0.9714 Sep: 0.6921 Sep: 0.5628 Sep: 0.635 Oct: 0.6712 Oct: 0.8119 Oct: 0.7826 Oct: 0.690.691
10 Aug26 Oct

Below 1 = more calls than puts. 12 of 12 weeks were below 1.marketdata.theocc.comOpen source ↗

VIX, weekly close

10 Aug: 14.2514.2517 Aug: 15.1324 Aug: 14.4331 Aug: 14.537 Sep: 15.8414 Sep: 14.8121 Sep: 14.8728 Sep: 15.315 Oct: 14.8412 Oct: 19.9919 Oct: 19.4526 Oct: 19.4219.42
10 Aug26 Oct

The stock market's “fear gauge”: higher = more expected swings.fred.stlouisfed.orgOpen source ↗

AAII investors, bull / neutral / bear

10 Aug26 Oct
Bullish Neutral Bearish

Latest 38% bull vs 41% bear; 10 of 12 weeks had more bears than bulls.aaii.comOpen source ↗

Crowded trades

  • Inflation stays hot, with almost no one expecting cooler prices
  • A December Fed hike, after two officials voted to raise rates
  • An AI-spending bubble in big tech after Alphabet, Amazon and Intel results
  • Crash warnings on YouTube, which took about 63% of views (a mild contrarian sign)

Top themes

  • Big-tech earnings and the AI-spending selloff
  • Fed hold with two votes for a hike, eyes on December
  • Gold slides below $3,900
  • US midterms on 3 Nov
  • Oil above $100 feeding inflation worries

Notable links

YouTube, most viewed

Reddit, top of the week

Method and limits

Samples are small: X 709 scored posts (from 1,945 collected, about 24–30 Oct, mostly broad search: 462, plus 247 from a watchlist of market accounts), Reddit 146 posts and top comments from five subreddits, YouTube 206 video titles. Reddit came from public RSS feeds, which carry no upvote counts, so posts are weighted by rank, not votes. YouTube is scored on titles only. Posts were classed by an AI reading each one, with only a light filter for obvious errors (6 X posts dropped); opinions are kept as posted. Trends values are relative, and small terms swing a lot.

Social mood is noisy and often contrarian. It is not a forecast and not a reliable indicator.

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