Week ahead

Week of 26 Oct 2026: Fed decision, GDP and PCE, and Big Tech earnings

US stocks slipped last week (S&P 500 −0.5%, Nasdaq −0.7%, Dow +0.4%); the Nasdaq had its biggest one-day drop since June on Thursday as worries over the cost of AI spending flared. The closed Friday at 19.45, little changed from 19.99 a week earlier.

Oil jumped: Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday, its highest since 29 April, after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The 10-year Treasury ended the week at 5.00%.

A busy week: the Fed decides on Wednesday (a hold is widely expected; the debate is about December), Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation follow on Thursday, and Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Visa, Mastercard, Eli Lilly, ExxonMobil and Chevron report. The ECB, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan also decide.

Mood Cautious into a heavy week: oil above $115 and 5% yields meet a Fed decision, key inflation data and the biggest AI spenders' results.

Last week The S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.7% over the week, after the Nasdaq's biggest one-day drop since June on Thursday; Brent oil rose 6% to $116.72. Final October consumer was 48.0, with year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.7%.

Charts

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

759.97 -0.43% (-3.28)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Live chart: TradingViewPrice and weekly change: Friday closing prices, week to 23 Oct

GLD SPDR Gold Shares

366.61 -4.03% (-15.40)

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Live chart: TradingViewPrice and weekly change: Friday closing prices, week to 23 Oct

The calendar · ET

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Mon 26 Oct

Until 29 OctFed
Fed quiet period continues: no policy remarks from Fed officials before the 27–28 Oct meeting ends

Tue 27 Oct

08:30Data
US September durable goods orders
1.4% m/m (prior −0.1%); core capital goods orders 0.7% (prior 1.6%)
Before the openEarnings
Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 results
10:00Data
Conference Board consumer confidence (October)
80.4 (prior 81.9)
10:00Data
US September new home sales
650k annualised (prior 684k)
After the closeEarnings
Visa (V) fiscal Q4 results
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
Boeing (BA) Q3 results

Wed 28 Oct

08:30Data
US September advance goods trade balance and inventories
Goods deficit $129.0bn (prior $132.1bn)
09:45Global
Bank of Canada rate decision and Monetary Policy Report
Hold at 2.25%
14:00Fed
rate decision (press conference 30 minutes later). See Rate odds for market expectations High impact
Why it matters: A hold is priced in; what matters is whether the Fed signals a December hike, which would move yields near 5%, the dollar and stock valuations.
After the closeEarnings
Microsoft (MSFT, Nasdaq) fiscal Q1 results High impact
Why it matters: The first of three AI hyperscalers this week; its spending plans test the AI trade after last week's sell-off.
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
Alphabet (GOOGL, Nasdaq) Q3 results

Thu 29 Oct

08:30Data
US Q3 GDP (advance) + September personal income, spending & PCE inflation High impact
GDP 3.0% annualised (prior 2.2%); consumer spending 3.4% (prior 3.8%); personal income 0.3% m/m (prior 0.2%); real spending 0.1% (prior 0.6%)
Why it matters: Growth and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge land the day after the Fed decision and feed straight into December hike odds.
08:30Data
US weekly jobless claims
Prior 194k; no published by our source.
Before the openEarnings
Caterpillar (CAT) Q3 results
09:15Global
ECB monetary policy decision (press conference 30 minutes later)
19:30Global
Tokyo October
2.7% y/y (prior 2.7%)
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
Eli Lilly (LLY) and Mastercard (MA) Q3 results
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
Amazon (AMZN, Nasdaq) Q3 results

Fri 30 Oct

06:00Global
Euro area Q3 GDP (flash)
1.0% y/y (prior 1.2%)
08:30Data
US Q3 Employment Cost Index
0.8% q/q (prior 0.9%)
Before the openEarnings
ExxonMobil (XOM) Q3 results
12:00Fed
San Francisco Fed's Daly opens an AI and the economy conference (ECB's Lane gives the keynote); first Fed remarks after the meeting
Decision dayGlobal
Bank of Japan policy decision and Outlook Report
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
Chevron (CVX) Q3 results

Fed officials are in their pre-meeting quiet period until 29 Oct, so the only Fed speaker listed is on Friday. Boeing, Alphabet, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Amazon and Chevron have not said when their results are released, so timing is marked unconfirmed. Apple reports next week. Forecasts are Bloomberg consensus via TD Economics; no consensus for September PCE inflation was available from that source.

Global watch

Central banks

Decision Fri 30 Oct
Bank of Japan: expected to hold at 1.25% after September's hike, Reuters sources say; it may raise next year's inflation forecast and keep the door open to a December hike. Tokyo CPI is out the same morning (see calendar). High impact
A hawkish tone would lift Japanese yields and the yen, which can pull money out of US bonds and stocks.
Decision Thu 29 Oct, 09:15 ET
ECB: deposit rate 2.50% after a hike in September; decision and press conference the day after the Fed.
Sets the tone for the euro and the dollar right after the Fed.
Wed 28 Oct, 09:45 ET
Bank of Canada decision; economists expect a hold at 2.25% (Bloomberg consensus via TD Economics).
A read on how other central banks are handling the oil shock.

Oil & energy

Ongoing
Houthi attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy sites, sent Brent to $116.72 on Friday, its highest since 29 April and up 6% on the week. Attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz are at their worst this month, per a tracking think tank cited by Reuters. High impact
Higher oil feeds straight into US inflation and makes a December Fed hike more likely.
Next meeting 1 Nov
OPEC+: seven countries kept November output unchanged on 4 Oct and meet again on 1 Nov.
Any extra supply would ease oil prices; none has been signalled.

Global events

Tue 3 Nov
US midterm elections decide control of Congress; Reuters says Wall Street is increasingly focused on them.
Can shift expectations for fiscal policy, tariffs and the Iran conflict.

Times in ET (New York). Geopolitics as of Sun 25 Oct.

Rate odds · FOMC

27–28 Oct

Hold90.6%

Hike 25bp9.4%

As of 25 Oct 2026 (CME FedWatch figures as reported by BeInCrypto via Yahoo Finance). CME FedWatch via reports

Implied by futures prices; not a Fed forecast. Reported on 25 Oct as a 90.6% chance of a hold and 9.4% of a hike on Wednesday; the CME FedWatch page itself could not be read directly. December odds are left out because reports disagree: about 68% for a hike in one, 75–81% for at least one hike in others.

Sentiment

SPY 1.16 vs 1.20

A little less hedging than the week before, but still above 1 and rising into Thursday and Friday's drop: cautious.

GLD put/call0.78 vs 0.81

Little changed and still below 1, with a spike in put buying on Thursday as gold fell.

investors37% bull · 46% bear vs 39 · 42

Week to 21 Oct (17% neutral). widened their lead to 45.8% vs 36.9% for (bull-bear spread -8.9, from -2.9 a week earlier); neutral, at 17.3%, is far below its 31.0% long-run average, and bears are well above their 31.5% average.

21 Oct

37%

17%

46%

14 Oct

39%

20%

42%

7 Oct

40%

21%

39%

30 Sep

35%

19%

46%

Bullish Neutral Bearish

VIX19.45 -0.54 on week

Close Fri 23 Oct. Elevated but steady: down from 19.99 a week earlier after dipping to 16.68 mid-week, ahead of the Fed and Big Tech results.

Put/call volume ratio, average of daily values, week 19–23 Oct vs 12–16 Oct. OCC cleared volume, all exchanges. Above 1 = more puts (hedging) than calls.

Full sentiment →

Key risks

Oil: Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including energy sites, pushed Brent to $116.72 on Friday, up 6% on the week; Saudi Aramco evacuated its Dhahran headquarters on Thursday.
Rates: the 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 5.00%; a Fed that signals a December hike, or hot PCE data on Thursday, could push it higher.
AI spending: about a third of S&P 500 companies report this week, including Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, whose spending plans are in focus after last week's AI-led sell-off.
Weak consumer mood: final October sentiment 48.0, near a record low, with year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.7% and long-run at 3.5%.

Unverified · from X posts

Summaries of X posts, not checked against primary sources.

None this week.