Week of 19 Oct 2026: Big Tech earnings, oil near $110 and a silent Fed
US stocks fell last week (S&P 500 −2.0%, Nasdaq −4.5%) as AI and chip shares sold off. The VIXAn index of how much movement options traders expect in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, often called the 'fear gauge'. Higher means more expected turbulence. closed Friday at 19.99, its highest close since 29 July.
Inflation ran hot: September CPI (Consumer Price Index)The government's main measure of how fast prices for everyday goods and services are rising, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A higher reading than expected can push interest-rate expectations up. 3.7% y/y (core 2.6%) and producer prices +1.3% in the month. Fed officials are now in their pre-meeting quiet period until 29 Oct; futures price a hold on 28 Oct but a likely hike by December.
A lighter US data week (housing starts, jobless claims, flash PMIs, final consumer Market sentimentThe overall mood of investors: how optimistic or worried they feel. It can swing to extremes and is a mood reading, not a forecast.) puts the focus on earnings: Netflix on Tuesday, Tesla and Meta on Wednesday, P&G on Thursday, American Express on Friday.bls.govOpen source ↗cboe.comOpen source ↗finance.yahoo.comOpen source ↗
MoodRisk-off / risk-onRisk-off: investors move into safer assets such as cash, bonds or gold. Risk-on: they buy riskier assets such as stocks. into earnings: hot inflation, oil near $110 and 5% YieldThe annual return on a bond at today's price, as a percentage. When bond prices fall, yields rise, and the other way round. meet an AI-led tech sell-off, while the Fed stays silent until 28 Oct.
Last week September CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier (core 2.6%), producer prices jumped 1.3% in the month (6.3% y/y, the largest 12-month rise since December 2022) and retail sales rose 0.8%. The VIX closed Friday at 19.99, up from 14.84 a week earlier.bls.govOpen source ↗bls.govOpen source ↗census.govOpen source ↗cboe.comOpen source ↗
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EIA weekly petroleum status reporteia.govOpen source ↗
After the closeEarnings
Tesla (TSLA, Nasdaq) and Meta Platforms (META, Nasdaq) Q3 resultssec.govOpen source ↗investor.atmeta.comOpen source ↗High impact
Why it matters: The first megacap AI spenders to report after last week's chip sell-off; their spending plans test the AI trade that has led the market.
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
IBM (IBM), Texas Instruments (TXN, Nasdaq), Lam Research (LRCX, Nasdaq) Q3 resultsnewsroom.ibm.comOpen source ↗ti.comOpen source ↗investor.lamresearch.comOpen source ↗
FOMCThe Federal Open Market Committee: the Fed group that sets US interest rates. It meets eight times a year. rate decision (press conference 30 minutes later). See Rate odds for market expectationsfederalreserve.govOpen source ↗High impact
Why it matters: With CPI at 3.7% and a hike priced for December, any signal on the next move resets rates, the dollar and stock valuations.
Thu 29 Oct
08:30Data
US Q3 GDP (advance) + September personal income & PCE inflationbea.govOpen source ↗High impact
Why it matters: Growth and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge land the day after the Fed decision.
Decision dayGlobal
ECB monetary policy decision and press conferenceecb.europa.euOpen source ↗
Fri 30 Oct
Decision dayGlobal
Bank of Japan policy decision and Outlook Reportboj.or.jpOpen source ↗
Times in ET (New York); daylight saving is handled automatically. Fed officials are in their pre-meeting quiet period (17–29 Oct), so no Fed speakers are listed. IBM, Texas Instruments and Lam Research hold calls after the close on 21 Oct, but have not said when results are released, so timing is marked unconfirmed. One aggregator listed ExxonMobil on 23 Oct; the company says 30 Oct. Forecasts are Bloomberg Consensus / forecastThe typical figure economists expect before a release. Markets often move on the gap between the actual number and this forecast, not on the number itself. via TD Economics.
Global watch
Central banks
Next meeting 29–30 Oct
Bank of Japan: no decision this week; rate 1.25% after hikes in June and September. Governor Ueda said on 16 Oct the BoJ cannot tolerate inflation accelerating and will keep raising rates; Reuters sources say many board members prefer to wait in October. Japan's September CPI is out Friday (see calendar).investing.comOpen source ↗
A more hawkish BoJ would lift Japanese yields and the yen, which can draw money out of US bonds and stocks.
Wed 21 Oct, 02:00 ET
UK September CPI, the main data point before the Bank of England's 5 Nov decision.ons.gov.ukOpen source ↗
Sticky UK inflation adds to the global case for tighter policy that weighs on bond markets, including Treasuries.
Decision 29 Oct
ECB: no meeting this week; the Governing Council meets 28–29 Oct, with a press conference on the 29th.ecb.europa.euOpen source ↗
Sets the tone for the euro and the dollar the day after the Fed.
Oil & energy
Ongoing
Strait of Hormuz: Iran says two tankers hit mines on 17 Oct; attacks have surged for two weeks and flows fell from 20.8m barrels on 8 Oct to 2.9m on 11 Oct (Kpler). President Trump says he expects a deal after the 3 Nov midterms.aljazeera.comOpen source ↗High impact
The main driver of oil above $100 and the largest upside risk to US inflation.
Next meeting 1 Nov
OPEC+: seven countries kept November output unchanged on 4 Oct and meet again on 1 Nov.opec.orgOpen source ↗
Any extra supply would ease oil prices; none has been signalled.
Global events
Sun 18 Oct, 22:00 ET
China: Q3 GDP and September industrial output, retail sales and investment.stats.gov.cnOpen source ↗
A read on global demand for oil, metals and US exporters.
Times in ET (New York). Geopolitics as of Sun 18 Oct.
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