Market Weekly Briefing

Sentiment · week of 26 Oct 2026

Weekly snapshot for the week of 26 Oct 2026, kept as a record. Latest read →

Hot inflation and a HawkishLeaning towards higher interest rates to fight inflation. Fed still set the tone, gold's mood flipped BearishExpecting prices to fall. after its drop below $4,000, and AI-spending worries drove the stock selloff.

Market gauges

SPY Put/call ratioOptions that bet on a fall (puts) divided by options that bet on a rise (calls). A high ratio means traders are buying more protection, a sign of caution.1.16 vs 1.20

A little less hedging than the week before, but still above 1 and rising into Thursday and Friday's drop: cautious.marketdata.theocc.comOpen source ↗

GLD put/call0.78 vs 0.81

Little changed and still below 1, with a spike in put buying on Thursday as gold fell.marketdata.theocc.comOpen source ↗

AAII surveyA weekly poll by the American Association of Individual Investors asking members whether they expect stocks to rise, fall or stay flat over the next six months. investors37% bull · 46% bear vs 39 · 42

Week to 21 Oct (17% neutral). Bears widened their lead to 45.8% vs 36.9% for BullishExpecting prices to rise. (bull-bear spread -8.9, from -2.9 a week earlier); neutral, at 17.3%, is far below its 31.0% long-run average, and bears are well above their 31.5% average.aaii.comOpen source ↗

Bullish Neutral Bearish
VIXAn index of how much movement options traders expect in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, often called the 'fear gauge'. Higher means more expected turbulence.19.45 -0.54 on week

Close Fri 23 Oct. Elevated but steady: down from 19.99 a week earlier after dipping to 16.68 mid-week, ahead of the Fed and Big Tech results.cboe.comOpen source ↗

Put/call volume ratio, average of daily values, week 19–23 Oct vs 12–16 Oct. OCC cleared volume, all exchanges. Above 1 = more puts (hedging) than calls.

Social sentiment · Read of 24 Oct 2026

Net score: bullish % minus bearish % of posts, 17–24 Oct 2026, unweighted (each scored post counts once). A bar reaches the edge at ±100. Samples under 30 posts are drawn hatched: a hint, not a measure. Search is Google TrendsA free Google tool showing how often people search for a topic compared with usual. A spike shows rising public attention, not whether people are buying or selling., US, last 7 days vs the prior 4 weeks: public worry, not opinion.

SPY · US stocksAgree← BearishBullish →
X−14leans bearishn 285
Reddit−20leans bearishn 87
YouTube−36bearishn 86
Search“stock market crash” +7% vs the prior 4 weeks, peak on 23 Oct

Bearish. YouTube is the most bearish, Reddit and X less so. On X, market accounts are roughly neutral while the wider crowd is bearish, so experts and crowd split; worry centres on AI spending after big-tech earnings, record stock ownership and margin debt.

GoldSplit← BearishBullish →
X−33bearishn 187
Reddit+12leans bullishn 34
YouTube−26leans bearishn 39
Search“buy gold” −11% vs the prior 4 weeks

X and YouTube turned bearish after gold fell to a three-month low; on Reddit dip-buyers and worried holders roughly balance out. Searches for buying gold eased.

FedAgree← HawkishDovish →
X−28leans hawkishn 99
Reddit−40hawkishn 15 · small sample
YouTube−57hawkishn 44
Search“Fed rate hike” −55% vs the prior 4 weeks, tiny volume

Hawkish. Talk is about whether the next hike comes at the 27–28 Oct meeting or in December, with long-term YieldThe annual return on a bond at today's price, as a percentage. When bond prices fall, yields rise, and the other way round. near 5% adding to the worry.

CPI · inflationAgree← HotterCooler →
X−64strongly hottern 110
Reddit−86strongly hottern 7 · small sample
YouTube−89strongly hottern 47
Search“inflation” −15% vs the prior 4 weeks

Hot: the most one-sided topic again, driven by oil prices. Searches for inflation fell back from last week's CPI (Consumer Price Index)The government's main measure of how fast prices for everyday goods and services are rising, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A higher reading than expected can push interest-rate expectations up.-day peak.

net score, bar length = sizefewer than 30 postsAlso on search: “recession” -18%. YouTube titles: 24% fear, 2% hype (52% vs 7% by views).

Weekly sentiment trend · last 12 weeks

One bar per week (week starting 3 Aug to week starting 19 Oct); the darkest bar is the latest. Put/call is OCC cleared volume averaged over the week’s trading days; VIX is the Friday close (Cboe, via FRED); AAII is the survey reported that week. Updated each week from the same sources. A record, not a forecast.

SPY put/call, weekly average

3 Aug: 1.011.0110 Aug: 1.0817 Aug: 1.2924 Aug: 1.1031 Aug: 1.187 Sep: 1.3214 Sep: 1.1321 Sep: 1.0128 Sep: 1.095 Oct: 1.0512 Oct: 1.2019 Oct: 1.161.161
3 Aug19 Oct

Above the dashed 1 line = more puts (hedging) than calls. 12 of 12 weeks were above 1.marketdata.theocc.comOpen source ↗

GLD put/call, weekly average

3 Aug: 0.530.5310 Aug: 0.4617 Aug: 0.3324 Aug: 0.5531 Aug: 0.747 Sep: 0.9714 Sep: 0.6921 Sep: 0.5628 Sep: 0.635 Oct: 0.6712 Oct: 0.8119 Oct: 0.780.781
3 Aug19 Oct

Below 1 = more calls than puts. 12 of 12 weeks were below 1.marketdata.theocc.comOpen source ↗

VIX, weekly close

3 Aug: 14.9014.9010 Aug: 14.2517 Aug: 15.1324 Aug: 14.4331 Aug: 14.537 Sep: 15.8414 Sep: 14.8121 Sep: 14.8728 Sep: 15.315 Oct: 14.8412 Oct: 19.9919 Oct: 19.4519.45
3 Aug19 Oct

The stock market's “fear gauge”: higher = more expected swings.fred.stlouisfed.orgOpen source ↗

AAII investors, bull / neutral / bear

3 Aug19 Oct
Bullish Neutral Bearish

Latest 37% bull vs 46% bear; 10 of 12 weeks had more bears than bulls.aaii.comOpen source ↗

Crowded trades

  • Inflation stays hot: CPI is the most one-sided topic on every platform
  • More Fed hikes ahead, with December widely treated as live
  • Gold bearishness after the drop, a sharp flip from last week's dip-buying mood
  • AI-spending bubble fears after big-tech earnings
  • Crash and "Black Monday" warnings on YouTube, which took about half of all views (a mild contrarian sign)

Top themes

  • AI-spending selloff in tech after big-tech earnings
  • Oil above $110 and energy-driven inflation worries
  • Fed meeting on 27–28 Oct: hike now or in December
  • Gold falls below $4,000 to a three-month low
  • Long-term yields near 5% and the rising cost of money

Notable links

YouTube, most viewed

Reddit, top of the week

Method and limits

Samples are small: X 681 scored posts (from 2,145 collected, about 17–24 Oct, mostly broad search: 502, plus 179 from a watchlist of market accounts), Reddit 143 posts and top comments from five subreddits, YouTube 216 video titles. Reddit came from public RSS feeds, which carry no upvote counts, so posts are weighted by rank, not votes. YouTube is scored on titles only. Posts were classed by an AI reading each one, with only a light filter for obvious errors (35 X posts dropped); opinions are kept as posted. Trends values are relative, and small terms swing a lot.

Social mood is noisy and often contrarian. It is not a forecast and not a reliable indicator.

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