Daily · Mon 2 Nov 2026

Daily update · Mon 2 Nov 2026

Friday 30 Oct closes: the Dow Jones fell 1.1% to 51,770.31 (52,342.56 on Thursday). The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Friday closes were not yet on the official data series (FRED) when this page was built, so they are not shown. The 10-year Treasury was 4.94% (4.98% on Thursday) and the 2-year 4.56% (4.61%).

Friday's US Employment Cost Index: compensation costs for civilian workers rose 0.8% in the third quarter (forecast 0.8%) and 3.4% on a year ago; wages and salaries rose 0.7% on the quarter. Over the weekend, China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September.

Still ahead today: the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October at 10:00 ET (forecast 54.7, prior 54.5) and US construction spending at 10:00 ET, the Chicago Fed's Goolsbee at 11:15 ET and the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey at 14:00 ET. Palantir reports after the close; Apple's results timing is not confirmed.

This week: the US midterm elections on Tuesday, ISM Services on Wednesday at 10:00 ET, the Bank of England decision on Thursday at 07:00 ET and the October jobs report on Friday at 08:30 ET.

Part of the week of 2 November. Read the Weekly briefing →

No audio for today yet, or it was not made. The written update is below.

Results in

The week's calendar · ET

Struck through = already happened, with the result. The rest is still to come.

Mon 2 Nov

10:00Data
ISM Manufacturing PMI (October) High impact
54.7 (prior 54.5)
Why it matters: First big read on October activity; a strong number with rising prices would back a December Fed hike.
10:00Data
US construction spending (September)
11:15Fed
Chicago Fed's Goolsbee moderates a keynote and Q&A with BIS deputy general manager Andréa Maechler (Chicago Fed Financial Markets Group conference)
14:00Fed
Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS)
After the closeEarnings
Palantir (PLTR, Nasdaq) Q3 results
22:30Global
Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decision (cash rate 4.60%)
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
Apple (AAPL, Nasdaq) fiscal Q4 results

Tue 3 Nov

All dayMarket
US midterm elections: control of Congress is decided; results come in overnight High impact
Why it matters: Reuters says oil traders are bracing for a possible escalation of the Iran war after the vote; the result can also shift fiscal and tariff expectations.
10:00Data
JOLTS job openings (September)
10:00Data
US factory orders (September)
1.2% m/m (prior 0.1%)
After the closeEarnings
AMD (AMD, Nasdaq) Q3 results

Wed 4 Nov

05:00Global
Euro area October inflation (flash HICP)
3.9% y/y (prior 3.8%)
08:15Data
ADP private payrolls (October)
75k (prior 90k)
08:30Data
US trade balance (September)
−$104.9bn (prior −$105.6bn)
10:00Data
ISM Services PMI (October) High impact
54.8 (prior 54.9)
Why it matters: Services are most of the economy; its prices index is watched for inflation ahead of the Fed's December meeting.
After the closeEarnings
Qualcomm (QCOM, Nasdaq) fiscal Q4 results
After the closeEarnings
Arm Holdings (ARM, Nasdaq) fiscal Q2 results
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
Uber (UBER) Q3 results

Thu 5 Nov

07:00Global
Bank of England rate decision, minutes and Monetary Policy Report High impact
Hike to 4.00% (54 of 63 economists in a , 12–14 Oct)
Why it matters: Would be its first hike in more than three years, another sign that central banks are turning to hikes as energy prices push inflation up.
08:30Data
US productivity and unit labour costs (Q3, preliminary)
Unit labour costs prior 1.2% q/q; no consensus published by our source.
08:30Data
US weekly jobless claims
Prior 194k; no consensus published by our source.

Fri 6 Nov

04:30Fed
New York Fed's Williams in a fireside chat with ECB's Philip Lane (ECB Conference on Money Markets, Frankfurt)
08:30Data
US October jobs report (Employment Situation) High impact
Payrolls 65k (prior 29k); unemployment rate 4.2% (prior 4.2%); average hourly earnings 0.3% m/m (prior 0.1%)
Why it matters: The biggest data point before the Fed's 8–9 Dec meeting, where markets see a hike as likely.
12:15Fed
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman takes part in a discussion (University of Mississippi banking symposium)
15:00Data
US consumer credit (September)

Results are from the US Labor Department (BLS) and China's National Bureau of Statistics. Index closes come from FRED (Dow Jones, VIX) and yields from the US Treasury. Not shown because no official source was available when this page was built: Friday's S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and VIX closes, ExxonMobil's third-quarter results, Tokyo's October , oil and gold prices, the dollar index and updated Fed rate odds. Times in ET (New York).

Since the Weekly

Friday 30 Oct closes: Dow Jones 51,770.31 (−1.1% from 52,342.56 on Thursday). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Friday closes were not yet on FRED (Thursday Nasdaq: 26,184.72; Wednesday S&P 500: 7,743.98).
Treasury yields on Friday: 10-year 4.94% (4.98% on Thursday), 2-year 4.56% (4.61%), 30-year 5.31% (5.32%).
VIX: Thursday's close was 17.20, up from 16.91 on Wednesday. Friday's close is not yet on the official series (FRED).
US Employment Cost Index, third quarter: compensation costs for civilian workers +0.8% (second quarter +0.9%), wages and salaries +0.7%, benefits +0.9%. On a year ago compensation +3.4% and wages +3.1%; after inflation, wages and salaries were 0.6% lower than a year earlier.
China (National Bureau of Statistics, Sat 31 Oct): official manufacturing PMI 49.3 in October (September 50.1); new orders 49.4, production 49.8. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.7 (50.2).

Market gauges · as of Fri 30 Oct close + releases before Monday's open

SPY · Fri 30 Oct1.38 vs 1.13

Friday: 1.38 vs 1.13 on Thursday: more puts than calls, and the highest reading of the week. A one-day reading, not a weekly average.

GLD put/call · Fri 30 Oct0.72 vs 0.98

Friday: 0.72 vs 0.98 on Thursday: more calls than puts, and fewer puts relative to calls than the day before. A one-day reading, not a weekly average.

VIX17.20 +0.29 vs Wed 28 Oct

Close Thu 29 Oct. Thursday's close, the latest published: higher than Wednesday's 16.91. Friday's close was not on the official series when this page was built.

Put/call volume ratio for a single day, Friday 30 Oct, against Thursday 29 Oct. OCC cleared volume, all exchanges. Above 1 = more puts (hedging) than calls.

Full sentiment →

WEEKLYWeekly data

From the Weekly briefing for the week of 2 Nov. Not updated daily: these figures are refreshed only in the Weekly, every Saturday.

SPY put/call · weekly average1.16 vs 1.16

Weekly data, as of Fri 30 Oct

Unchanged on the week at 1.16, but Friday's 1.38 was the highest daily reading since 16 Oct as tech sold off: cautious.

GLD put/call · weekly average0.69 vs 0.78

Weekly data, as of Fri 30 Oct

Lower than the week before and still below 1, with little put buying even as gold fell to a one-year low on Friday; Wednesday's 0.20 was unusually low.

investors38% bull · 41% bear vs 37 · 46

Weekly data, as of the week to 28 Oct

Week to 28 Oct (21% neutral). still lead, 41.4% vs 37.8% for , but the gap narrowed (bull-bear spread -3.6, from -8.9 a week earlier); neutral, at 20.7%, is still far below its 31.0% long-run average, and bears are well above their 31.5% average.

28 Oct

38%

21%

41%

21 Oct

37%

17%

46%

14 Oct

39%

20%

42%

7 Oct

40%

21%

39%

Bullish Neutral Bearish

Put/call volume ratio, average of daily values, week 26–30 Oct vs 19–23 Oct. OCC cleared volume, all exchanges. Above 1 = more puts (hedging) than calls.

Weekly sentiment →

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