Daily · Thu 29 Oct 2026

Daily update · Thu 29 Oct 2026

Wednesday 28 Oct closes: the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,743.98, the Nasdaq Composite 0.3% to 26,549.85 and the Dow Jones 0.2% to 52,475.10. The 10-year Treasury was 5.05% (4.99% on Tuesday). The for Wednesday was not yet on the official data series when this page was built; its last published close is Tuesday's 17.52.

The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on a 10–2 vote; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a 0.25-point rise. Earlier, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 0.25 points to 2.5% (Sunday's forecast was a hold at 2.25%). The US goods trade deficit widened to $134.9 billion in September (forecast $129.0 billion).

After the close: Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $92.3 billion (+19%) and diluted EPS of $4.92 (non-GAAP $4.89), with Azure revenue up 48%. Alphabet reported third-quarter revenue of $127.6 billion (+25%) and EPS of $2.12 (a year ago $2.87), with Google Cloud revenue up 103% to $30.7 billion.

Still ahead today (Thu 29 Oct): US third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation and weekly jobless claims at 08:30 ET, the ECB decision at 09:15 ET, and results from Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Mastercard and Amazon. Friday brings the Bank of Japan, euro area GDP and the US Employment Cost Index.

Part of the week of 26 October. Read the Weekly briefing →

Daily audio · Thursday 29 October 2026

AI-narrated · Voice by elevenlabs.io · about 1 min · Download MP3

Read the transcript

High impact events for today: the first estimate of American third-quarter economic growth, together with the personal income and spending report, which includes the PCE inflation reading before market. Later this week, Friday brings the Bank of Japan's policy decision.

Yesterday, American stocks closed higher. On the economic data, American September advance goods trade balance and inventories came in wider than forecast. Microsoft, MSFT, Nasdaq, reported higher revenue. Alphabet, GOOGL, Nasdaq, reported higher revenue but lower earnings per share. The Fed held its rate, though the vote was split, with some members wanting a rise. And the Bank of Canada raised its rate, a surprise, as a hold had been expected.

Now, on X, from Tuesday's evening read, which covers just a couple of hours of posts. Compared with Tuesday's brief, the overall mood has turned slightly , up from flat. American stocks moved from slightly bullish to very bullish. Gold is very bullish too.

For information only, not investment advice. The written update and its sources are on the site.

AI-narrated. The words are the same as the transcript, which is built from the figures on the written update (not written freehand). Voice by elevenlabs.io. For information only. Not investment advice. About · Sentiment · Terms · Next release dates

Results in

Microsoft (MSFT) · fiscal Q1 2027

Released after the close on Wed 28 Oct (the call was at 5:30 pm ET). Revenue $92.3 billion, up 19%. Operating income $45.9 billion, up 21%.
Net income $36.6 billion (+32%) and diluted EPS $4.92 (+32%) on a GAAP basis; non-GAAP, which excludes the impact of its OpenAI investments, $36.4 billion (+18%) and $4.89 (+18%).
Microsoft Cloud revenue $63.9 billion (+30%); Azure revenue +48%; commercial remaining performance obligation +73% to $677 billion. Devices and Consumer revenue $15.5 billion (−3%).
Returned $10.2 billion to shareholders in dividends and buybacks. The release gives no outlook; Microsoft gives guidance on its call, which is not confirmed here.

Alphabet (GOOGL) · Q3 2026

Released after the close on Wed 28 Oct (SEC filing at 4:01 pm ET). Revenue $127.6 billion, up 25% (also 25% in constant currency). Operating income $40.6 billion (+30%); operating margin 31.8%.
Net income $26.2 billion and diluted EPS $2.12, against $35.0 billion and $2.87 a year ago. Other income was a net expense of $8.2 billion (a gain of $12.8 billion a year ago).
Google Services revenue $96.3 billion (+11%), with Search & other $63.4 billion (+12%) and YouTube ads $11.2 billion. Google Cloud revenue $30.7 billion (+103%), with Cloud operating income $11.1 billion.

The week's calendar · ET

Struck through = already happened, with the result. The rest is still to come.

Mon 26 Oct

Until 29 OctFed
Fed quiet period continues: no policy remarks from Fed officials before the 27–28 Oct meeting ends

Tue 27 Oct

08:30Data
US September durable goods ordersDone
ResultNew orders +1.8% to $345.4B (forecast +1.4%; August revised to +0.1%). Excluding transportation +0.5%. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft +0.5% (forecast 0.7%; prior revised to 1.6%).
Before the openEarnings
Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 resultsDone
ResultRevenue +7% to $13.4B; comparable EPS $0.91 (+11%); full-year guidance raised.
10:00Data
Conference Board consumer confidence (October)Done
Result91.7 (forecast 80.4; September revised to 84.2). Present Situation 120.4; Expectations 72.6.
10:00Data
US September new home salesDone
Result676,000 annualised (forecast 650,000; August revised to 680,000). Down 5.3% on a year ago; median price $400,400; 8.4 months' supply.
After the closeEarnings
Visa (V) fiscal Q4 resultsDone
ResultNet revenue $12.1B (+13%); non-GAAP EPS $3.48 (+17%), GAAP $3.19; dividend raised 16% to $0.78. Released after the close.
07:30Earnings
Boeing (BA) Q3 resultsDone
ResultReleased before the open. Revenue $24.2B (+4%); GAAP loss $0.26 a share (Q3 2025: $7.14); record backlog $745B.

Wed 28 Oct

08:30Data
US September advance goods trade balance and inventoriesDone
ResultGoods deficit $134.9B (forecast $129.0B; August $132.1B). Wholesale inventories +0.6%, retail +0.3%.
09:45Global
Bank of Canada rate decision and Monetary Policy ReportDone
ResultRaised 0.25 points to 2.5% (forecast: hold at 2.25%).
14:00Fed
rate decision (press conference 30 minutes later). See Rate odds for market expectationsDone High impact
ResultHeld at 3.75%–4.00%, 10–2 vote; Cook and Hammack wanted a 0.25-point rise.
After the closeEarnings
Microsoft (MSFT, Nasdaq) fiscal Q1 resultsDone High impact
ResultRevenue $92.3B (+19%); EPS $4.92 GAAP, $4.89 non-GAAP; Azure +48%.
After the closeEarnings
Alphabet (GOOGL, Nasdaq) Q3 resultsDone
ResultReleased after the close. Revenue $127.6B (+25%); EPS $2.12 (Q3 2025: $2.87); Cloud +103%.

Thu 29 Oct

08:30Data
US Q3 GDP (advance) + September personal income, spending & PCE inflation High impact
GDP 3.0% annualised (prior 2.2%); consumer spending 3.4% (prior 3.8%); personal income 0.3% m/m (prior 0.2%); real spending 0.1% (prior 0.6%)
Why it matters: Growth and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge land the day after the Fed decision and feed straight into December hike odds.
08:30Data
US weekly jobless claims
Prior 194k; no published by our source.
Before the openEarnings
Caterpillar (CAT) Q3 results
09:15Global
ECB monetary policy decision (press conference 30 minutes later)
19:30Global
Tokyo October
2.7% y/y (prior 2.7%)
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
Eli Lilly (LLY) and Mastercard (MA) Q3 results
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
Amazon (AMZN, Nasdaq) Q3 results

Fri 30 Oct

06:00Global
Euro area Q3 GDP (flash)
1.0% y/y (prior 1.2%)
08:30Data
US Q3 Employment Cost Index
0.8% q/q (prior 0.9%)
Before the openEarnings
ExxonMobil (XOM) Q3 results
12:00Fed
San Francisco Fed's Daly opens an AI and the economy conference (ECB's Lane gives the keynote); first Fed remarks after the meeting
Decision dayGlobal
Bank of Japan policy decision and Outlook Report
Timing unconfirmedEarnings
Chevron (CVX) Q3 results

Results are from the companies' and agencies' own releases (Alphabet's via its SEC filing). Index closes come from FRED (S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones, VIX) and yields from the US Treasury. Not shown because no official source was available when this page was built: Wednesday's VIX close, oil and gold prices, the dollar index, Microsoft's guidance (given on its call, not in the release) and updated Fed rate odds (Sunday's page has the odds as of 25 Oct). No new evening X sample was collected on Wednesday, so the daily X mood is unchanged from Tuesday. Times in ET (New York).

Since the Weekly

Wednesday 28 Oct closes: S&P 500 7,743.98 (+0.3% from 7,722.60 on Tuesday); Nasdaq Composite 26,549.85 (+0.3% from 26,477.81); Dow Jones 52,475.10 (+0.2% from 52,377.57).
Treasury yields on Wednesday: 10-year 5.05% (4.99% on Tuesday), 2-year 4.67% (4.70%), 30-year 5.37% (5.30%).
VIX: Wednesday's close is not yet on the official series (FRED), so it is not shown. The last published close is Tuesday's 17.52, down from 18.39 on Monday.
Fed: held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, voting 10–2. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred a 0.25-point rise. The statement says economic activity is expanding at a strong pace and inflation remains elevated.
Bank of Canada: raised its target for the overnight rate by 0.25 points to 2.5% (Bank Rate 2.75%, deposit rate 2.45%). Sunday's calendar showed a forecast of a hold at 2.25%. It expects Canada's economy to grow 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 and 2028.
Census advance report for September: goods trade deficit $134.9 billion (August $132.1 billion); exports $209.2 billion, imports $344.1 billion. Wholesale inventories +0.6%, retail inventories +0.3%.

Market gauges · as of Wed 28 Oct close + Thu 29 Oct morning

SPY · Wed 28 Oct1.10 vs 1.09

Wednesday: 1.10 vs 1.09 on Tuesday: puts slightly above calls, little changed on the day. A one-day reading, not a weekly average.

GLD put/call · Wed 28 Oct0.20 vs 0.62

Wednesday: 0.20 vs 0.62 on Tuesday: calls far outnumbered puts, on call volume about four times Tuesday's. A one-day reading, not a weekly average.

VIX17.52 -0.87 vs Mon 26 Oct

Close Tue 27 Oct. Tuesday's close, the latest published: lower than Monday's 18.39. Wednesday's close was not on the official series when this page was built.

Put/call volume ratio for a single day, Wednesday 28 Oct, against Tuesday 27 Oct. OCC cleared volume, all exchanges. Thursday's volumes are not published yet, so there is no weekly average. Above 1 = more puts (hedging) than calls.

Full sentiment →

WEEKLYWeekly data

From the Weekly briefing for the week of 26 Oct. Not updated daily: these figures are refreshed only in the Weekly, every Saturday.

SPY put/call · weekly average1.16 vs 1.20

Weekly data, as of Fri 23 Oct

A little less hedging than the week before, but still above 1 and rising into Thursday and Friday's drop: cautious.

GLD put/call · weekly average0.78 vs 0.81

Weekly data, as of Fri 23 Oct

Little changed and still below 1, with a spike in put buying on Thursday as gold fell.

investors37% bull · 46% bear vs 39 · 42

Weekly data, as of the week to 21 Oct

Week to 21 Oct (17% neutral). widened their lead to 45.8% vs 36.9% for bulls (bull-bear spread -8.9, from -2.9 a week earlier); neutral, at 17.3%, is far below its 31.0% long-run average, and bears are well above their 31.5% average.

21 Oct

37%

17%

46%

14 Oct

39%

20%

42%

7 Oct

40%

21%

39%

30 Sep

35%

19%

46%

Bullish Neutral Bearish

Put/call volume ratio, average of daily values, week 19–23 Oct vs 12–16 Oct. OCC cleared volume, all exchanges. Above 1 = more puts (hedging) than calls.

Weekly sentiment →

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