Week of 12 Oct 2026: CPI, big-bank earnings and a hawkish Fed
US indexes start the week at or near records (S&P 500 weekly close 7,811.54 on 9 Oct), while bond yields sit near 20-year highs and Brent crude is above $100.
September CPI on Wednesday is the last major inflation print before the Fed's 27-28 Oct meeting, where markets are weighing another hike after September's 25bp increase.
JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi and Wells Fargo open Q3 earnings season on Tuesday.investing.comOpen source ↗fxempire.comOpen source ↗
Mood Records on the headline indexes, narrow breadth, high yields and $100+ oil: little room for an upside inflation surprise.
FOMC meeting begins (decision 28 Oct). see Rate odds for market expectationsca.investing.comOpen source ↗High impact
Paris time (CEST, ET+6) until 25 Oct; from 26 Oct Paris is ET+5 until US clocks change on 1 Nov. Jobs report date and full Fed-speaker list not verified. One aggregator lists Coca-Cola on 19 Oct; the company says 27 Oct.
Global watch
Central banks
Next meeting 29–30 Oct
Bank of Japan: no decision this week. Governor Ueda said on 6 Oct the BoJ will keep raising rates if the outlook holds, after a hike on 18 Sep.boj.or.jpOpen source ↗
A further BoJ hike would lift Japanese yields and the yen, and can pull money out of US assets.
Fri 16 Oct, 04:00
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, fireside chat at the IIF meeting in Bangkok. ECB President Lagarde is also in Bangkok 13–17 Oct.bankofengland.co.ukOpen source ↗
Any shift in tone on rates abroad feeds into the dollar and US bond yields.
Oil & energy
Wed 14 Oct, 10:00
IEA Oil Market Report (October). OPEC's monthly report is out on Tue 13 Oct; OPEC+ kept November output unchanged on 4 Oct.iea.orgOpen source ↗
With Brent above $100, supply and demand estimates feed straight into US inflation expectations.
Geopolitics & trade
Ongoing
Strait of Hormuz: attacks on shipping intensified and flows were reported about 40% below normal, as talks to end the war stalled.aljazeera.comOpen source ↗High impact
The main driver of oil above $100 and the largest upside risk to US inflation.
Agreed
US–China: tariff truce extended to 10 Jan 2027, with reciprocal cuts on about $30bn of goods each way. No start date yet.english.mofcom.gov.cnOpen source ↗
Lowers the near-term tariff risk for US importers and retailers; tech export controls are unchanged.
Global events
Tue 13 Oct, 04:00
IMF World Economic Outlook, at the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok (12–18 Oct).imf.orgOpen source ↗
Sets the tone on global growth, inflation and oil for the week's policy speeches, including Fed Chair Warsh on Fri.
Times Europe/Paris. Geopolitics as of Sun 11 Oct.
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